Moody's Changes Global Energy Outlook from Stable to Positive

US Moody's Investors Service has changed its outlook for Global Energy to stable from positive, based on its expectation that the pace of improvement in fundamental conditions across the industry will ease over the next 12-18 months, according to a statement.

Moody's stable global outlook stems from the earnings directions for the exploration and production and integrated oil sectors, which dominate the Global Energy industry and which will be little changed in 2022, after delivering a strong rebound in earnings, according to Moody's.

Producers will maintain earnings above 2019 levels, supported by the ongoing recovery in global oil demand, gradual supply growth, and a manageable cost environment.

Many producers that did not invest sufficiently in 2020-21 will seek to boost capital budgets to stabilize production and stave off potential declines in volumes.

The Oil Field Services and Drilling sector will benefit in 2022 from significant cash flow momentum and is poised to increase aggregate cash flow by more than 10 % in 2022 from 2021 levels, the New York-based company said.

Refining and Marketing companies' free cash flow will continue to improve their financial strength as demand and earnings increase through 2022, with fuel consumption returning to pre-crisis levels.

Moody's would change its global sector outlook to positive if it expects consolidated global EBITDA (earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortization) growth to accelerate to more than 5 % over the next 12-18 months, and to negative if it expects that consolidated EBITDA will decline more than 5 %.

An interruption in the recovery in demand, a widespread recession, or other factors that contribute to declining oil and gas prices, would lead to stable outlooks, according to Moody's.

Climate change poses an increasing longer-term risk for the Global Energy industry from energy transition, greater regulation, and reduced investor demand.