Qatar GDP on Rising Trend

Qatar’s GDP is set to exceed US$200 billion in four years and reach US$204 billion by 2025, according to researcher FocusEconomics. The country’s GDP this year has been forecast at US$169 billion, US$178 billion in 2022, US$186 billion (2023) and US$195 billion (2024). GDP per capita, FocusEconomics said, is set to reach US$72,105 in 2025 from US$60,235 this year. Next year, it has been projected at US$63,139 and US$65,866 (2023) and US$68,993 (2024). The country’s current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) will reach 7.5 in 2025 from 4.2 this year. Next year it will be 7.7, 8.6 in 2023 and 11.8 in 2024. Fiscal balance (as a percentage of GDP) will reach 2.7 in 2025 from 1.8 this year. Next year, it will be 2.3 and 2.5 (in 2023) and 2.6 (2024). The country’s merchandise trade balance will reach US$52.4 billion in 2025 from US$39.4 billion this year, the report said. Unemployment as a percentage of active population will be 0.3 this year and 0.1 in 2025. FocusEconomics said Qatar’s economy appeared to be “resilient” in the first quarter of the year.

The non-energy private sector purchasing managers' index (PMI) was “well in expansionary territory” in the period, while industrial production data suggests the performance of the energy sector “improved” relative to Q4, 2020. Heading into second quarter (Q2), the year-on-year comparisons will be “flattered by the highly favorable base effect, but underlying momentum seems to have softened.” The non-energy private sector PMI slumped in April and May, amid the progressive tightening of restrictions to ward off a second wave of Covid-19. More positively, lower cases in recent days led the government to begin easing restrictions in four phases. During the first phase, which began on May 28, most public venues are open, but with strict capacity limits.

According to FocusEconomics, the economy is set to return to growth this year on stronger domestic and foreign demand. Investment in the energy sector should also aid activity. FocusEconomics panelists see a 2.9% rise in GDP in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growth of 3.6% in 2022. Consumer prices rose 1% in annual terms in April, contrasting March’s 0.3% fall. Inflation is seen rising later this year on higher food and energy costs, recovering activity and a supportive base effect. The researcher sees consumer prices rising 1.3% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2022, it sees inflation averaging 2.3%.