Goldman Sachs Forecasts US$80 Oil Price

US bank Goldman Sachs expects commodities to rally another 13.5% over the next six months on a worldwide reversal of coronavirus curbs, lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, its commodities research team said. The bank now sees Brent prices rising to US$80 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices to US$77 a barrel over the six month period. “We expect the biggest jump in oil demand ever, a 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd) rise over the next six months,” Goldman said, citing acceleration of vaccinations in Europe and an unleashing of pent-up travel demand. The easing of international travel restrictions in May will lead global jet demand to recover by 1.5 million bpd, it said.

The bank sees gold prices at US$2,000 an ounce over the next six months and said it is too early for Bitcoin to compete with gold for safe haven demand, adding that the two can co-exist. “While Bitcoin benefits from greater liquidity, it suffers from lack of real use and weak environmental, social, governance (ESG) scoring, due to its high energy consumption,” it said. Such extensive energy use made the cryptocurrency vulnerable to losing its “store of value” demand to another, better-designed contender, it added.

Goldman also upgraded its copper price forecast, setting a 12-month target of US$11,000 per ton, citing an under-invested supply side. “The only way this record-sized and fast approaching supply crunch can be solved is via a surge in price to new record highs,” the bank said. While China will maintain its major role in commodity demand, the bank added, it is not expected to be the only major source of growth in the coming decade.